CERTAINTY – SCIENCE – PART VIII – CONCLUSION

“‘If you thought that science was certain – well that is just an error on your part.” – Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate, 1965, Physics.

The last eight blogs delved into science as certainty. It appears science is the best model of certainty for the theological agnostic and the philosophical skeptic. We identified science as a modern form of foundationalism, set on a base of 10 very reasonable, if not absolute, axioms: trust in empiricism, material monism, mathematics and statistics, a uniformity in nature that permits induction, causality, universal applicability, the validity of human reasoning and the scientific method, transferability between fields, refinement into a limited number of underlying laws, and the non-existence of the supernatural.

Science’s weaknesses as a presumptive expression of certainty include: issues of verification and falsification, the limits of the absoluteness of mathematics and its usage in scientific theorizing, and issues of internal connection between its branches and correspondence with the human experience of reality. Nonetheless, science represents an amazingly consistent picture of nature and the cosmos, proven by the reliability of its predictions and the technology it informs. Theologians and philosophers may legitimately speculate on or impose other principles on to the world, but it appears foolish to purchase this with a denial of scientific explanation.

Perhaps it is better for the philosopher to point out difficulties in the methods of science, seek more integration of its branches, refine its interoperability with the human experience, and focus on arenas where science offers limited illumination: ethics, politics, aesthetics and the liberal arts, history, metaphysics, and theology. It is also incumbent on the doubtful to concede that where science cannot offer certainty, no certainty is possible (excluding possibly logic and mathematics). We will come back to this alternative in the section synopsis.

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CERTAINTY – SCIENCE – PART VII

“All science is either physics or stamp collecting.” – Ernest Rutherford, Nobel Laureate, 1908, Chemistry.

“I now regard my former belief in the superiority of science over other forms of human thought and behavior as a deception…” – Max Born, Nobel Laureate, 1954, Physics.

The last area we explore in the quest to determine whether science offers us the route to certainty is the issue of connection. Here there are two levels at issue – connectivity within branches of science and correlation with the human experience of the world.

One of the most stunning aspects of the history of science is the separate development of its branches. After Aristotle, most thinkers restricted their work to one field: for example physics, chemistry, or biology. Advances in each field occur in a silo and the tools, methods, and language are different enough that no one scientist, can pull together all the pieces. Subatomic physics, biology, and meteorology are probabilistic while higher level physics and chemistry are mechanical. Reality is revealed in pieces that do not coalesce into a single matrix. The chemist, cellular biologist, geneticist, botanist, zoologist, paleontologist, geologist, and meteorologist do not present a comprehensive picture of planetary life. It is as if each feels a complete explanation within their field is the final goal.

This fragmentary model of science leads to significant breaking points. String theory, the standard model, atomic theory, and chemistry are wonderful until we arrive at an explanation of life. The second law of thermodynamics fits cosmology well, but not biology. It is as if there is a brick wall, science cannot hurdle. Similar arguments can be made for consciousness and human behavior. It is unclear if this is merely inadequate time for a definitive correlation, a defect in the scientific establishment, or something forever impenetrable. The latter would be a powerful argument against science as the ultimate tool of certainty.

The other issue of connection in science is its correspondence with human experience. Relativity, quantum uncertainty, and multidimensional string theory are abstruse to the common person. Science focuses on the how while the human wants to know more of the why. Physics can explain the optics of the color of flowers, and botany can explain their function and structure, but no science can explain their aesthetic quality. Astronomers can explain the phases of the moon, and biologists the working of the human eye, but the experience of the wonder of a full moon is outside the realm of science. Science can tell us the origin and structure of most of the components of the sky, but not why or even how humans come to experience the concept of a cosmos. Most importantly, science offers no explanation as to why we are here and what we should do while here, the vital questions of life itself.

For science to be absolute, it must unite the fields of study within a rubric of human meaning; otherwise it comes across as insightful observations with practical uses, but not the comprehensive certainty so many seek.

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CERTAINTY – SCIENCE – PART VI (continued)

Last time we looked at the imprecise pairing of chaoplexity with scientific modeling and dubious use of quantum mechanics to explain a spontaneously appearing universe. My final example of suspect mathematics in science is even more metaphysical, string theory.

In the first half of the 20th century it must have appeared that the fundamental nature of matter was finally elucidated with Niels Bohr’s model of the atom with three readily understandable subatomic particles: electrons, protons, and neutrons. Unfortunately, that hope was brief since astronomers were already finding other particles in cosmic radiation. Later research using particle accelerators led to the unsightly Standard Model of Particle physics wherein subatomic particles like the proton are made up of still smaller particles called quarks of which there are dozens with odd names like the down quark or the charmed antiquark; coming in ‘flavors’ arbitrarily called red, green, and blue; and with spin of 0, 1, or 2.3

Such a disconcertingly complex outcome led many physicists to seek a still ‘smaller’ and simpler explanation underlying this particle ‘zoo.’ At that point string theory comes on the scene. The general theory is simple enough – particles are not points, but “string-like” and can be (1) stretched like rubber bands; more energy when stretched and less when contracted, and (2) vibrate like rubber bands. With work physicists and mathematicians were able to make string theory work by joining it to supersymmetry leading to the more coherent superstring theory. Here at last was a theory that could unify physics, a theory of everything; explaining  all of the particles, the forces, and the laws of motion, and accommodating special relativity and quantum theory.4

However there are problems. First superstring theory is actually many equally coherent theories, each requiring more than the commonly accepted  four dimensions – in fact 10 in all (the remaining six being tiny curled up dimensions). String theory depends on only one constant, but requires many additional seemingly arbitrary constants to explain the standard model. The theory is contingent on supersymmetry which is not visible in the natural world. The theory itself appears to be untestable. Last is the question of how the differences between unified particles and forces is to be explained.5

Some physicists are dubious of superstring theory. Richard Fenyman dislikes the tendency to explain or discount anything inconsistent with the theory. Sheldon Glashow scoffs that it cannot be demonstrated and has not led to a single experimental prediction.6 Lee Smolin bemoans the incredible resources diverted to this theory to the exclusion of other research based on the scientific community’s rigid belief in the theory or ‘groupthink’, referencing Kuhn’s book on scientific paradigms at one point. Others believe string theory’s greatest strength is its beauty, suggesting it qualifies as aesthetics.7

None of this is intended to diminish science which for the most part is the best system for identifying “truth” known to humanity. However my goal is to remind readers that the mathematics underpinning science and some resulting theories are not certain, some not even in an empirical context. Next time we look at one more concern with science as certainty, issues of connection.

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1Horgan, John, The End of Science, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc., Reading, Massachusetts, 1996. ISBN 0-201-62679-9, page 191.

2Ibid. Page 202.

3Hawking, Stephen, A Brief History of Time, Bantam Books, New York, 2009. ISBN: 978-0-307-29117-2, pages 86-89.

4Smolin, Lee, The Trouble with Physics, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, 2007. ISBN: 978-0-618-91868-3, pages 103-112.

5Ibid., page 117-123.

6Ibid., page 125.

7Horgan, John, The End of Science, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc., Reading, Massachusetts, 1996. ISBN 0-201-62679-9, page 70.

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CERTAINTY – SCIENCE – PART VI

“God used beautiful mathematics in creating the world.”– Paul Dirac, Nobel Laureate in Physics, 1933.      “

In the last post I noted that mathematics developed independently of science over thousands of years until the Age of Reason when several great minds yoked them initiating a revolution in science. However, by the early 20th century, cracks began to show both in the proposition that mathematics is absolute and in the application of increasingly abstract mathematics to empirical reality. The doubts inherent in these mathematical speculations and modeling is the subject of this post.

Our first example is the area of chaos theory and complex system analysis which John Horgan labels chaoplexity.1 While basic science depends on the assumption of the uniformity of simple systems in generating scientific laws, most of reality is complex. So while we can predict the product of the mixing of two chemicals in a test tube it is unclear what this tells of about chemical reactions occurring in Earth’s primordial soup. On the face of it, chaos theory’s central tenant that highly complex systems inevitably lead to unpredictability appears to be logically inconsistent with predictive modeling.

In addition scientific models are prone to structural problems including speculative assumptions and bias in the choice of inputs. Nancy Cartwright, a philosopher of science, considers numerical models nothing more than “a work of fiction.”2 Nonetheless experts constantly forecast future events based on this method including portentous phenomena such as climate change and the course of pandemics.

A second example is quantum mechanics and uncertainty, which is inscrutable at best and irrational at worst. Still some physicists use the probabilistic nature of matter in space-time implied by this theory to argue that even if nothing at all existed before the big bang, there was an infinitesimal chance that a singularity would appear spontaneously. Since there was an infinite period in which this could occur, the appearance of the universe from naught is a reasonable explanation (everything just came from nothing!). This too seems illogical since there would have been no time and no environment in which a spontaneous event could occur.

This theory does not appear empirical at all, rather a mathematical labyrinth requiring assumptions and contortions which are of course beyond non-mathematicians. In fact, this theory seems closer to metaphysics than strict science,and lay persons are expected to accept its “truth” on faith in the knowledge of the experts, a circumstance hauntingly reminiscent of the assertion of priests in early religions.

(continued next post)

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